How Do the Beaver Mock-Elections Compare to the Real World Results?

ELIZABETH COBB ’08 & GABBY GUTMAN ‘11

Last Tuesday millions of Americans from 22 states went out to vote in the Super Tuesday presidential primary. Additionally, Beaver’s student council held a mock election, giving students, faculty, and staff the opportunity to support their favorite candidates. Polls were open in the morning and afternoon, giving voters the option of choosing a Democrat or Republican ballot. For the Democrats one could choose from, Barrack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Mike Gravel. The Republican candidates were John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. Both ballots also had the option of a “write-in” candidate, where voters could vote for someone not listed on the ballot. Though this option had been exploited in the past (David Ortiz got over 20% of the freshman votes for president in 2004) there were only 10 ballots with write-in candidates. The write-ins consisted of Stephen Colbert, New York mayor Mike Bloomberg, Dennis Kusinich, Beowoulf, former presidential hopeful Bob Dole, middle school teacher Jon Greenberg, Jesus and “Democracy.”

Though the results of the election were not surprising, the turnout was lower than expected. The middle school had 68% participation. Of the 80 student who voted, an overwhelming 92.5% used Democratic ballots, leaving 6 Republican supporters in the three grades. In the upper school, student involvement ranged from 75% of the 10th grade voting to a mere 53% of seniors going to the polls. One of the most surprising parts of the election was the representation of republican voters in the junior class. Beaver, often assumed to be a liberal and strongly democratic school, had 39 upper schoolers opt for the republican ballot, with 36% of the junior class supporting the GOP. However, by far the most disappointing group of voters was the faculty and staff; of 100, only 34 teachers and administrators showed up to support the candidates at school. The poor showing by seniors and staff is most likely due to the fact that many seniors and faculty members could vote in the real election, and saw that opportunity as more important than a mock election.

In the final tally, Obama won the mock election in a landslide with 74% of the Democrat vote. Clinton received 20% of the Democratic vote, while the generally unknown Mike Gravel was only chosen by 11 people. For the Republicans, John McCain won with 51% of the party’s votes. Ron Paul came in second with only 20% of the GOP’s support.

Though it is clear that Beaver “has a crush on Obama,” many results across the country on Super Tuesday were not so one-sided. On February 5, 2008 there were 24 primaries held throughout the country. These results will help determine who the republican and democratic nominees would be. For the democrats, Hillary Clinton won 782 delegates, barely beating Barrack Obama, who won 757. The number of delegates needed to win the democratic nomination is 2,025, but the closeness of the delegates at this point shows how important the upcoming primaries will be.

On the republican side, John McCain had a huge lead, with 605 delegates, Mitt Romney had 201 and Mike Hukabee came in third with having 152. (Note: for the republicans to get the nomination they need 1,191 delegates.)

For the state-by-state break down, Obama won 13 out of the 22 states that held democratic primaries, leaving Clinton with 9. Here in Massachusetts, Clinton won with 56% of the democratic votes, and Mitt Romney, who has since dropped out, came out in the lead with 51% of the republican votes. Following was McCain with 41%.

Super Tuesday is the day when almost half of the states have their primaries, and the results have a large impact on the final outcome for the presidential nominees. This year much was decided for the Republicans while very little was decided for the Democrats. At the end of the day, Obama and Clinton were neck in neck, while McCain has enough of a lead that his nomination is almost already guaranteed. As the primaries continue the race is very close on both sides, with many suspecting that party candidates will not be decided until the party conferences this summer. The primaries to come will be very exciting as we get closer to the convention.
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Decision ’08: Barack Hussein Obama

TAYLOR HAIGLER '08

Bio
Barack Obama is currently a United States Senator from Illinois. He was born on August 4, 1961 in Honolulu, Hawaii. Throughout his early years, Barack’s friends and family called him “Barry.” When Barack was two years old, his parents separated and a few years later divorced. His mother re-married an Indonesian Oil manager and the family moved to Jakarta in 1967. Barack returned to Hawaii to live with his maternal grandparents when he was ten. After graduating high school, Obama moved to Los Angeles, where he studied at Occidental College for two years. He then transferred to Columbia University where he majored in political science with a specialization in international relations. Right after college, Obama moved to Chicago and took a job as a community organizer with a church-based group. He worked with low-income neighborhoods to improve living conditions. Wanting to create change in a bigger way, Barack attended Harvard Law School and completed his J.D. degree magna cum laude in 1991. He returned to Chicago and practiced civil rights law, served eight years in the Illinois State Senate and in 2004 was elected to the U.S. Senate.

Caucus/Primary Results
Obama currently has the support of 1,319 delegates, 69 more than Hillary Clinton.
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Political Views
Iraq: Obama opposed the war from the beginning and will immediately bring troops home, removing up to two combat brigades each month, and all combat brigades out in 16 months. No permanent bases will be built. He will keep some troops in Iraq to protect our embassy and diplomats. As troops are removed, Obama will engage representatives from all levels of Iraqi society to seek a new accord on Iraq’s Constitution and governance. Will launch an aggressive diplomatic effort to stabilize the Middle East (ie. secure borders, isolate al Qaeda, financial support for Iraq’s reconstruction). Will provide at least $2 billion to aid Iraq’s humanitarian crisis.

Education: Obama calls for the expansion of Early Head Start and Head Start programs. Will make affordable and high-quality child care available to working families. His "Zero to Five" plan emphasizes early care for infants to ensure that all children are ready to begin their education when they reach kindergarten. Obama's plan will reform No Child Left Behind to support schools that need improvement rather than punish them. Obama has developed a "recruit, prepare, retain, and reward" program to ensure the presence of quality teachers in every classroom. Obama will simplify the application process for financial aid, and create a universal and fully refundable tax credit, which will go toward the first $4,000 of college education.

Energy & Environment: Obama will reduce carbon emissions 80% by 2050. He will invest $150 billion over 10 years towards the advancement of renewable energy (ie. plug in hybrids) and double the current funding for research and development. His plan includes reducing oil consumption by at least 35% by 2030 by increasing America’s fuel economy standards. Obama wants to improve energy efficiency 50% by 2030 by setting national goals and offering grants to those states and corporations that implement the goals. Essentially, Obama wants to make the U.S. a leader by creating Global Energy Forums and re-engaging the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Poverty: Obama will expand access to jobs by investing $1 billion over five years in transitional jobs, creating a green jobs corps, improving public transportation and working to ensure that ex-offenders have employment opportunities. He plans to provide tax relief, increase tax benefits and raise minimum wage. He will increase the supply of affordable housing by creating trusts and funding community development programs to increase resources to the highest-need Americans. Obama will invest in rural small business, improve rural schools and ensure community-based resources to address community needs.

Sources:
http://www.barackobama.com/
iTunes Podcast: ABC News Presidential Candidate Profiles


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Decision '08: John Sidney McCain III

TAYLOR HAIGLER '08

Bio
John was born in Alexandria, Virginia in 1936. John followed in his father and grandfather’s footsteps, attending the United States Naval Academy. He did poorly, graduating in the bottom of his class, but he became a naval aviator and served in the Vietnam War flying attack aircrafts. In 1967, on his 23rd bombing mission in North Vietnam, his plane was shot down over Hanoi. He was held prisoner and tortured in North Vietnam for five and a half years. He does not know how he survived the brutality but knows that “this was the time he fell in love with his country.” McCain retired from the Navy in 1981, moved to Arizona and soon entered politics.

John is known for his temper and for attacking others’ integrities, but now tries to remind himself the importance of respecting one’s opponent. John was a candidate in the 2000 presidential election, but was defeated by George W. Bush for the Republican nomination. Last year, his campaign suffered a near collapse due to financial issues and his support for comprehensive immigration reform, but in late 2007 he staged a comeback and as of January 2008 he is once again a leader in the race. Currently, John is an Arizona Senator and a member of several organizations including Hispanic Youth Foundation and Council on Foreign Relations.

Primary/Caucus Results
Iowa: 13.1% (4th Place)
New Hampshire: 37.1% (1st place)
Michigan: 29.7% (2nd place)
Nevada: 13% (2nd place)
South Carolina: 33% (1st place)

Political Views
Health Care: “Americans deserve leadership for real reform that provides greater access to high-quality health care and ends spiraling costs…I believe the best way expand access and controls costs, without hurting the quality of our health care, is to harness competition to offer more affordable insurance options for as many Americans as possible, and to leverage innovation -- such as low-cost health clinics in retail stores for example -- and cost-effectiveness of our nation's firms to put an end to existing rigid, unfriendly bureaucracies.”

Iraq: “Today, Americans are fighting bravely in battles that are as dangerous, difficult and consequential as the great battles of our armed forces' storied past. In Iraq, I know the war has not gone well, and the American people have grown tired of it. I, too, have been made sick at heart by the many mistakes made by civilian and military commanders and the terrible price we have paid for them. I want our troops home too, but I want our troops to return home with honor and in victory. We cannot react to past mistakes by embracing calls to begin troop withdrawals or to revive our previous failed strategy of a partial troop pullback that will be an even greater mistake, a mistake of colossal historical proportions, which will seriously weaken American security.”

Energy: “I believe we must act now to increase our energy security, but the strategy I propose won't be another grab bag of handouts to this or that industry and a full employment act for lobbyists. Energy efficiency by using improved technology and practicing sensible habits in our homes, businesses and automobiles is a big part of the answer, and is something we can achieve right now. I want to improve and make permanent the research and development tax credit. I want to spend less money on government bureaucracies, and, where the private sector isn't moving out of regulatory fear, to form the partnerships necessary to build demonstration models of promising new technologies such as advanced nuclear power plants, coal gasification, carbon capture and storage, and renewable power so we can efficiently use our most abundant resources.”

Illegal Immigration: “As president, I will secure the border. I will restore the trust Americans should have in the basic competency of their government. A secure border is an essential element of our national security. Tight border security includes not just the entry and exit of people, but also the effective screening of cargo at our ports and other points of entry. We can further strengthen our border security if we pursue policies that recognize the importance of building strong allies in Mexico and Latin America who reject the siren call of authoritarians like Hugo Chavez, support freedom and democracy, and seek strong domestic economies with abundant economic opportunities for their citizens.”

Gay Marriage: “While, as a federalist, I recognize the right of the states to regulate the institution of marriage and to pass civil union laws, I strongly believe in the current law that declares that no other state should be legally bound to recognize same sex marriages or unions that might be legal in other places. But while the citizens of each state should decide this question, I personally oppose civil unions that for all intents and purposes confer the same status as traditional marriage. I am not against people entering into contracts or exchanging powers of attorney, a right that most states already afford to all citizens, regardless of sexual orientation.”

Sources:
http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008-presidential-candidates/
iTunes Podcast: ABC News Presidential Candidate Profiles
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Decision ‘08: Hillary Rodham Clinton

TAYLOR HAIGLER '08

Many Beaver students will soon have their first opportunity to vote, but some may not know much about their choices. Over the next few weeks, we will profile the major candidates, starting with Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Bio
Hillary was born in 1947 in a middle-class, white suburb: Park Ridge, Illinois. She had an ordinary childhood, enjoying sports, slumber parties with her girlfriends and watching the Beatles on the Ed Sullivan Show. Yet, what does differentiate her from most women of her time is her parents’ belief in equality. Her parents treated Hillary no differently than her brothers and told she could do anything she set her mind too. It wasn’t until Hillary wrote to NASA asking how she can prepare herself to one day become an astronaut that she realized how unequal society is: she was informed that a woman could not become an astronaut. Her household was conservative and when she left home to go to school at Wellesley College in the late 1960’s, she realized that it would be a difficult adjustment. Hillary went through a radical political transformation in her new liberal surrounding. After earning her B.A., Hillary went on to study law at Yale University, where she met and fell in love with former President Bill Clinton. After school Hillary worked as an attorney at Rose Law Firm, as a member of the faculty at the University of Arkansas Law School, was a board member of companies like Wal-Mart and Arkansas Children’s Hospital, was the First Lady of Arkansas in 1979 to 1981 and 1983-1993, the First Lady of the United Sates from 1993-2001 and is currently serving her second term as New York Senator.

Primary/Caucus Results
Iowa: 29% (3rd place)
New Hampshire: 39% (1st place)
Michigan: 55% (1st place)*
Nevada: 51% (1st place)

*Note: Michigan previously lost its delegates to the national convention, and Obama and Edwards withdrew their names from the ballot.

Political Views
Health Care: “When I am President, enacting legislation to provide guaranteed quality, affordable health care will be my top domestic priority. My plan will lower health care costs by modernizing the system, focusing on preventive care, coordinating and streamlining care for chronically ill patients, and getting rid of the hidden cost of providing care to the uninsured. Under my plan, working families will get a tax credit to help pay for their premiums, insurance companies won't be able to deny coverage based on pre-existing conditions, and people won't lose coverage if they switch or lose their jobs.”

Iraq: “When I am President, I will end the war in Iraq. I will convene a meeting of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, my Secretary of Defense, and my National Security Council to draw up a viable plan to bring our troops home starting within the first 60 days of my administration. When I am President, I will withdraw our forces from the sectarian fighting. There will be no American soldiers refereeing a civil war. No more combat patrols in Baghdad.”

Energy: “I have three big goals: to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050, the level necessary to avoid the worst impacts of global warming; to cut foreign oil imports by two-thirds from projected levels by 2030; and to transform our carbon-based economy into an efficient green economy, creating at least five million jobs from clean energy over the next decade.”

Gay Marriage: “I believe gay and lesbian couples should have the same rights and responsibilities as all Americans, and I believe that civil unions are the best way to achieve this goal.”

Poverty: “When I am President, I will make new investments to reduce poverty and increase opportunity for low-income Americans. To support our children in their earliest years in life, I will invest $10 billion for universal Pre-K. I will invest in mentoring and internship programs to help at-risk middle-school students stay on track for college and job success. I will provide job-training opportunities for young people who have fallen off-track in high-growth industries like renewable energy, health care, construction, and financial services.”

Sources:
http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008-presidential-candidates/
iTunes Podcast: ABC News Presidential Candidate Profiles

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